Realist Perspectives on Eelam
Ruben Nagesparan Chandrakumar, BS
Within the field of international relations, there are two primary schools which encompass the philosophies used within academia and politics: realism and liberalism. Within the following essay, the perspectives of realism will be applied to analyzing and prescribing potential pathways forward for Eelam. There are a few core tenets that comprise the realist school; two of these fundamentals, as described by Dr. John Mearsheimer, are that power—which is the combination of population size, wealth, influence, and military power—is the “currency” of international relations and that states have a desire to maximize their amount of power. The reason why states want to build their power is because, within the international system, there is anarchy—there is no higher authority, no hierarchy.
All the international governing bodies, including the United Nations and the International Courts, are a function of liberalism and, in the eyes of realists, simply masquerade the nature of power politics. Thus, the way in which states can maximize their likelihood of survival is to maximize their power and to build powerful militaries. Realists believe that you can never truly know the intentions of another state and if they will attack; this great level of uncertainty requires states to protect themselves by building their military capacities. This uncertainty of intentions extends even to allies, partners, and liberal democratic countries. Within the philosophy, any military alliance, security guarantee, international law, and shared economic interests are identified as secondary to the imperative of survival. To finish the summary of the realist school, it is important to know that realists primarily care about great powers such as the United States, China, Russia, and the countries that are geographically close to the great powers.
Now, how might this philosophy be used to analyze the future of Eelam? The application reveals that there lies an inherent need to increase the political power of the country if there is to be any hope of survival. Thus, the population within the country and the diaspora must work hand in hand to maximize the level of political, economic, and diplomatic power. There are several aspects of this which will guide the analysis.
The first key aspect is to understand the shifting landscape of multipolarity through a realist lens. As China has risen immensely and posed a significant threat to both the interests and the hegemony of the United States, both political parties within the States have recognized the need to be “tough on China”—which will likely culminate in a containment strategy similar to the Cold War. Within this structure, the geopolitical position of Eelam’s proximity to India—an emerging great power—and its strategic shipping routes gives Eelam significant leverage. Couple this with the recent occurrence of a Chinese spy ship being docked at the Chinese-leased Hambantota port and Sri Lanka’s increasing affinity for China, and it is clear that Eelam has a strategic position to act as a bulwark against China.
Understanding the emergence of India as an aspiring great power also necessitates a careful analysis. With close ties within the state of Tamil Nadu, which is one of the most powerful states within India, Eelam has the opportunity to build a strong alliance and diplomatic relationship based upon the realist principles that India bases its foreign policy on. Foreign Minister Jaishankar has made this clear and has criticized Western countries for espousing a liberal world order, but then following realist principles when it suits them. By appealing to the realist, rational approach of India, Eelam can position itself as a trustworthy, strategic ally that will not allow China to gain unfettered access to the island.
The second key aspect is to increase the level of wealth of the country. There are two reasons why wealth is a necessity for survival within the international system: economic intercourse and the ability to build a defense force. The state of the economy within the country is abysmal and needs serious work. To rebuild the economy would require a significant infrastructure overhaul, protection for property rights, investments from the diaspora and others, and increased educational access. Additionally, there is an opportunity within the diaspora to increase economic output through increased networking, mentoring, and collective investing. Despite Eelam having a small population relative to many nations, achieving a level of wealth similar to smaller nations like Singapore and Israel would make Eelam a significant power within the international order. After building the basic infrastructure and implementing the laws that are required for a free market to emerge, there needs to be an emphasis on developing strategic advantages in specialized industries which will minimize the likelihood and impact of dramatic economic downturns.
The third key aspect is to increase the influence of the Eelam lobby. As detailed in his controversial book The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, Mearsheimer argues, alongside Stephen Walt, that there is a loose cohort of individuals and organizations that lobby to steer the policies of the United States in favor of Israel; this is an exceptional case of a smaller nation amassing a tremendous amount of power and influence to favor their national interests. Establishing a powerful lobbying force and advocating for the independence, freedom, security, and prosperity of Eelam is a necessity for building political power within foreign countries.
The fourth key aspect would be to increase the intelligence capabilities of Eelam and consider the implications of building a military force. The decisions of all world leaders are dependent upon the intelligence that they receive; unfortunately, the current intelligence apparatus of Eelam is terribly weak. Without a significant change in the investment, development, and training of an intelligence community that gives valuable insights and analysis to decision-makers, the country will make ill-informed decisions and be vulnerable to a number of malicious foreign actors. Furthermore, the leaders of the country should consider the steps that should be taken to build the military power of the country and how an independent Eelam must be equipped to protect itself from all enemies, foreign and domestic.
Lastly, the fifth key aspect would be related to maintaining and increasing the population of the country. There is serious concern with the birth rate decline among many populations, particularly in the countries where the diaspora resides. This phenomenon must be analyzed, and the country should do its best to keep the population from declining. Once the country is free, recognized as a sovereign nation, and developed, there will be a great opportunity to attract immigrants from across the world and, particularly, from India and Tamil Nadu.
By applying a realist analysis to the way in which Eelam can understand the present political environment and plan its future, thinkers and decision-makers can formulate several potential pathways, predict the outcomes of such pathways, and make the best decision for the welfare of the country as possible. Although the realist school does not take into consideration many key aspects which must be equally pursued, such as international law, the base understanding of survival and the lack of idealism provides one of the most practical frameworks to understand the political situation.